We (the Lib Dems) will be doing well to hold onto our sixty-odd seats. Gains in the northern cities will be wiped out by losses to the Tories in the South and West.
Rawnsley is right, there is an `Anyone But Labour' mood out there which is pitching people towards Cameron, whose progressive rhetoric is capturing the attention of the under 40s - who are temperamentally liberal.
Our best - and only - chance is to try to paint Cameron as being like Blair - the ultimate politician, not particularly worthy of our trust. And contrast him with ourselves the `straight-talkers'.
We will also have to use Mr Cable to full effect. His resonance with voters, particularly older ones, is enormous. As a Councillor I knock on doors a lot and the esteem and trust people have for Vince is massive.
At the moment though, I am not optimistic. The Tories have momentum and in Cameron a leader who just about cuts it with the public.
2010 will not, I fear, be our mould-breaking year. 2014 or 2018 however maybe is - as Labour will, effectively, be finished in many parts of the country after next year's rout.
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You know I had a moment yesterday when I could see myself comfortably (proudly) voting Lib Dem on the basis of belief, not just tactics. Vince Cable's proposal of the mansion tax to fund an increase in the tax threshold, well that just grabbed my conscience in a way a policy announcement hasn't for some time. Assuming that it has been costed out correctly and is feasible - which one now believes instinctively with Vince's involvement - then that is a suggestion that can actually do something to tackle poverty through redressing inequality.
Then today I hear that Lib Dem MPs and activists have barracked Vince at his hotel. The message I'm hearing is their anger that they hadn't been consulted, that this had been announced without full consultation or approval.
In an instant I was undrawing my cross. The retreat into Politics, into ego and personal pride, away from bold action and a commitment to trying something to help the masses at the expense of those who can afford it... Well, stuff you then, is the reaction engendered. If you're not different, you're the same and frankly we're all a bit tired of that.
Ever heard the phrase "they all piss in the same pot"! I used to be convinced of a difference in politics, the differences that make some change that i want to see. I now realise that politics serves politicians and civil servants as much as it serves the public.
When this changes i will take some interest in it again.
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